Craziest game I ever played (and won!)

[CraftyRaf]

This is by far the craziest game I ever played, from start to finish:
https://boardgamearena.com/gamereview?table=219496299

The fact that it was vs. a top-25 player on BGA makes the victory extra sweet ;-)
This is the board after 66/72 tiles. What is your best chance to win the game (I'm red)? See attachment, I don't know how to place it here...

Linkback: https://www.carcassonnecentral.com/community/index.php?topic=5560.0

[maysfair]

I think the best chance is to complete the city (currently 4 tiles) at the top-left hand side of the board.  The only tile left in the deck that enables you to do this is the remaining ccrr tile (which happens to have a shield on it).  If you play the cfff tile alongside this city (not playing a meeple), then you have a 20% chance of drawing the ccrr tile next time (which can't be blocked).  Even if you don't draw it next time, there is a decent chance of still being able to play it if you draw it on your final turn.

[kothmann]

Congratulations on the big win.  And thanks for sharing.

Play at [-4;0] as CFFF and don't place a meeple.  Then hope you get the last RRCC tile and complete the city at [-4;1] for 12 points.  There is no other tile that can play at [-4;1] so the CFFF tile is essential at [-4;0] to complete the city and recover the meeple.  Plus Red keeps a free meeple to grab another 3 points on a later turn, and maybe eek out a win.

Originally, I thought the best play would be at [4;3], placing the tile FFCF with the last red meeple as a knight in the city, which gets you 3 points if incomplete, or 8 points if you get the last CFFF tile.  But then I realized that there are plenty of chances for Green to get 3 points each with their last 2 meeples (e.g. farmer at [-1;6] or [4;-5], thief at [3;1]).  Red would be without a meeple until the 8-point city closed.  Since Green was currently ahead by 2 points on incomplete features (8 to 6) and also has a 4-point lead, Green would end up with a 12-point lead that Red's 8-point city can't overcome.

This logic took me about 30 minutes to see, by the way.  No way I would get it in real time.
And I am not at all sure it is right.     

I'm very curious to hear what you actually did (can't view the boardgamearena link until I play some games there).

+1 merit for sharing an interesting real game puzzle!

P.S.  I also don't know how to show an attached image inline.  When I want inline images, I put the image on google drive.  Then I set sharing to "anyone with link can view" and copy the link.  That link by itself doesn't seem to work here, but if you put the long image ID number from the google into the line of bbcode shown below, it does work (replace "zzz" with "img").  I figured this out by quoting someone else's post, so I put the real "img" code here too so you can quote and see it.

[zzz width=400]http://drive.google.com/uc?export=view&id=1-ouXYRvlZGOwFGRYXgnBnOc6MqrCNTUT[/­zzz]

[CraftyRaf]

You are both correct! This was my only chance to win the game (by 1 point!), and I managed to do it with that move!
And thanks for the merit! ;-)