Our Twitter account got mentioned on the latest edition of The Game of Love Podcast (episode 5) as the two guys who feature on it have been holding the “Great Carcassonne Debate” for the last two episodes. Their debate is focussed on whether strategy/ tactics or luck play a bigger role in Carcassonne, and in response to a tweet that said “There can be no devious planning (nor any planning) in a game played one random tile at a time!” I pointed out that “There can be no winning if you play Carcassonne without a gameplan against someone who knows what they're doing!”
Anyway, I thought it might be helpful if we discussed this amongst ourselves a little so I thought I’d start this topic and then pass the link back to the guys who do the podcast. It’s well worth a listen and can be found here:
http://gameoflovepodcast.com/ (episodes 4 and 5 will be of most interest, I haven’t listened to episode 4 but Carcassonne is discussed from about 23 minutes in episode 5).

My personal feeling is that luck is certainly a significant factor in Carcassonne. Significant enough that nobody can ever be considered unbeatable and even a novice player could beat the world champion if all the right tiles came up. This isn’t simply about drawing city tiles or cloisters while your opponent draws roads, but is more to do with being able to complete features (whatever they may be) and ensuring that any attempt by your opponent to steal into anything of yours ends in failure for them (and preferably a trapped meeple too). Most of us have been on the receiving end of this, and when it feels like the tiles are against you, there really isn’t much you can do to keep yourself in the game...
However, luck alone can’t account for the fact that some people always seem to win! So although the tile drawing is random, my default gameplan is to get myself into the position that I can improve my overall standing (or make life difficult for my opponent) with whichever tile I draw. This isn’t always possible, but if I know that I can use 80% of the tiles left in the bag in my favour then I’m going to be pretty confident about my chances. If I can’t easily use a tile to generate points for myself then perhaps I can drop it somewhere near an opposing city, cloister, road (or maybe all three) in order to ensure that some/ all of these features can’t be completed? Trapping my opponent’s meeples is definitely one of my favourite tactics!

Two final points: firstly that the balance of luck becomes increasingly significant as the number of players increases. I prefer to play head-to-head and can take this relatively seriously. With 4 players or more it’s usually the case that pretty much anyone can win and it can be very difficult to feel like you have any control over the game. Secondly, that tile-counting can also be very helpful/ necessary if you’re playing competitively. Recognising when there are no more tiles of a certain configuration left is very handy if your opponent is holding out for a tile that no longer exists!

I suspect this is something that’s been discussed before, but I’m really interested to hear what others have to say. Regardless of personal opinions about how good you may or may not be at Carcassonne in general, I’m sure that everyone here has something of interest and value to add!
Linkback: https://www.carcassonnecentral.com/community/index.php?topic=1293.0