Carc Central Community > Strategy Guide
Tactical Tuesday -- Week 07
wolnic:
--- Quote from: Ker42 on October 19, 2021, 07:37:50 AM ---Another viable option would be a variation of Option C but turned -90 degrees so that the newly placed black knight is facing the contested city, thus giving black dominance if connected.
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(If I understand your suggestion correctly) Since the CCCC has already been played the city would never complete, nor Green's monastery - so Black would now have two followers stranded until the end of the game, but might get a few points for this new city. Black might prefer not to place a knight on this tile.
I'd probably go with B, which still leaves options for the city and monastery to be completed - all 4 players have a reason for the tile to the upper right of the monastery being placed (CCCF or CCCR), so hopefully none of them has a vindictive streak and places a CFFF immediately right of the monastery!
Ker42:
--- Quote from: wolnic on October 20, 2021, 06:46:37 AM ---
--- Quote from: Ker42 on October 19, 2021, 07:37:50 AM ---Another viable option would be a variation of Option C but turned -90 degrees so that the newly placed black knight is facing the contested city, thus giving black dominance if connected.
--- End quote ---
(If I understand your suggestion correctly) Since the CCCC has already been played the city would never complete, nor Green's monastery - so Black would now have two followers stranded until the end of the game, but might get a few points for this new city. Black might prefer not to place a knight on this tile.
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Ah, good point, wolnic! I missed the fact that the CCCC had already been played. Definitely not a good idea to strand 2 followers!
kothmann:
--- Quote from: Bumsakalaka on October 20, 2021, 03:14:50 AM ---My option is C
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Poll results so far show 6 votes for B, Zero votes for C? You should be able to change your vote if you still want C...
kothmann:
I chose Option C.
--- Quote from: wolnic on October 20, 2021, 06:46:37 AM ---...so hopefully none of them has a vindictive streak and places a CFFF immediately right of the monastery!
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"Let me tell you something my friend. Hope is a dangerous thing. Hope can drive a man insane.” --Redd, Shawshank Redemption (1994)
--- Quote ---all 4 players have a reason for the tile to the upper right of the monastery being placed (CCCF or CCCR)...
--- End quote ---
Yes, but they don't all have the same level of incentive! Placing a tile at [1;-2] increases the players' points as follows:
Black+7; Green+1; Red+3; Yellow+7
Of course, if the city completes, the points for everyone except Green double. On the other hand, if [1;-2] becomes a permanent hole, then all 4 players will have a trapped meeple, but Red and Green will earn more points with their meeples than either Yellow or Black. So, in terms of winning the game, it is a bad outcome for both Green and Red to have a tile placed at [1;-2], because the game is decided only on relative points. If your opponents are nice, or they just prefer neat maps without holes, then you don't have to worry about this. But if I'm playing Red and Green, I'm definitely trying to make a hole there after Option B--it's like playing a game where everyone starts with only 6 meeples, but one opponent and I am given a few points before the game begins. I accept!
Assuming Red and Green will try to make a hole, how likely is it that they will succeed, given that Black and Yellow will be trying to prevent the hole? After Option B, there are 8 available compatible tiles (3xCFFF, 2xCFCF (1 city), 3xCFCF (2 cities)) that could be played at [1;-3] to make a CCCC hole. There are 7 available compatible tiles (3xCCCR, 4xCCCF) that can be played at [1;-2] to prevent the hole. And there are a total of 62 tiles available. Green and Red both have turns coming up next, so overall odds are clearly better than 50/50 that they will draw one of their 8 key tiles before Yellow or Black draws one of their 7 key tiles. But not a lot better than 50/50.
By comparison, if you play option C, there are now only the 4 CCCF tiles to fill the hole, but the odds that Red and Green get all 4 of them are only about 1/16, so Black and Yellow will almost certainly get into the city eventually.
Given the greater than 50% risk of being trapped in a 1-point city after Option B, I would take the slightly less desirable knight of Option C in exchange for the much higher chance of preventing the hole.
Option B is definitely better than either A or D, because you grab the extra tile and make your city easier to complete. With no completed cities available to Black, there is no place that warrants a farmer, either.
kothmann:
Oops--I forgot something important!
--- Quote from: kothmann on October 20, 2021, 10:06:09 AM ---...There are 7 available compatible tiles (3xCCCR, 4xCCCF) that can be played at [1;-2] to prevent the hole.
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Yes, but there are also many FxFx tiles that can be played at [1;-3] to make a hole that can be filled (like Option C)!
Here's a summary in photos. I think selecting Option B means that Yellow and Black have to be worried about Green or Red making a hole, like this:
My previous post said it was more than 50% chance that Green or Red would be able to do that before Yellow or Black would be able to connect the cities, like this:
That's true. But I forgot that Black or Yellow can also place tiles that create a hole that can be filled, like this:
And there are 16 available tiles (8xRFRF, 3xFFFF, 2xFFFR, 3xFFFC) that can be used for this purpose. Black and Yellow might not be willing to make this play with the cloisters, but they probably would with the other tiles. So, unless Green or Red draws one of their 8 unfillable-hole-making tiles on their first turn (about 20% chance total), Black and Yellow can likely avoid being locked out. As a result, the relative advantage of choosing C over B is much less than I thought. :-[ I might be convinced now that the superior knight you get from option B (much easier to close the city) offsets the risk of the trapped 1-point meeple. But it is a close call. As Black, I really hate leaving myself so vulnerable here. So, I'm not changing my vote. :)
After posting, I play-tested and discovered some other interesting things.
First, regardless of which option Black chooses, Green has to be very worried that the big city will be completed, giving all 3 opponents 20+ points. So, in addition to trying to make the hole, Green has an urgent priority to block or join at the other open edges of that city. I found that Green was often able to succeed, because the landscape is pretty dense.
Second, Red has a very strange incentive system. As I argued before, I think Red should be trying to make the hole at [1;-2] to gain an advantage over both Yellow and Black. But Red also needs to try to close off the other edges from further invasion. So...Red is in the very strange situation of trying to close all but one open ends of a big city! When I was playing against myself, it was easy to forget that Red didn't want the city to close, so I kind of doubt whether most players would actually play that way. Probably not. But I still think they should play that way. :)
Thanks to everyone who commented and voted! :(y)
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