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Strategy Guide / Re: Carcassonne Tips: "When the tiles are against you..."
« on: November 11, 2022, 10:25:20 AM »
It is interesting to compare Carcassonne with the card game of bridge. The odds are such an important part of bridge that they have been calculated to several decimal places, and whole books have been published on the subject.
In practice, though, the odds in bridge are best seen as a guide rather than a command. There is other information available from the bids and plays of your opponents, and this can often swing the odds.
This can apply in Carcassonne, too. In the example you give, suppose that there is one cccf tile left and two ccff tiles. However, your opponent is having the better of the game, and if they draw the cccf tile they will complete a large city of their own. In these circumstances, you might conclude that the game is lost if they draw that tile, so you may as well play on the assumption that you will get it anyway.
This shifts the odds somewhat, and you might decide to make the anti-percentage play as a result. However, there is yet another factor to consider - even if you do draw the cccf tile, you are still odds-on to draw a ccff tile beforehand. If your opponent is having the better of the match by far, you might conclude that you need your meeples back in hand soon, and this might shift the odds back in favour of playing for a ccff tile.
It is these delicate decisions that make Carcassonne - and bridge - such good games.
In practice, though, the odds in bridge are best seen as a guide rather than a command. There is other information available from the bids and plays of your opponents, and this can often swing the odds.
This can apply in Carcassonne, too. In the example you give, suppose that there is one cccf tile left and two ccff tiles. However, your opponent is having the better of the game, and if they draw the cccf tile they will complete a large city of their own. In these circumstances, you might conclude that the game is lost if they draw that tile, so you may as well play on the assumption that you will get it anyway.
This shifts the odds somewhat, and you might decide to make the anti-percentage play as a result. However, there is yet another factor to consider - even if you do draw the cccf tile, you are still odds-on to draw a ccff tile beforehand. If your opponent is having the better of the match by far, you might conclude that you need your meeples back in hand soon, and this might shift the odds back in favour of playing for a ccff tile.
It is these delicate decisions that make Carcassonne - and bridge - such good games.