Author Topic: Basegame League - Some Stats  (Read 606 times)

Offline danisthirty

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Basegame League - Some Stats
« on: October 16, 2017, 08:57:05 AM »
So then, without further ado, here are the final results in the classic league table format:



Congratulations to Jere who finished at the top, despite Merlin_89 leading us there all the way up to the 14th round. If this league has taught me one thing, it's that Carcassonne can be pretty cruel at times...

Before I continue, I'd just like to say a huge thank you to everyone who took part in this competition. I know it probably took a little longer to complete than many of us anticipated, but I'm so happy that we got there in the end, and I hope that the journey has been as enjoyable for everyone else as it has been for me. Thank you for being invested in it, and for remaining committed despite what life has already thrown at many of us this year. It's very much appreciated, and I'm already looking forward to next year's league!

One of the benefits of storing all of the results in a comprehensive SQL database (and being reasonably competent at writing SQL queries) is that I was able to do some fairly detailed analysis of the results, and I'd like to share a few of my initial observations here.

A couple of simple stats to begin with:



(I've long thought that getting to go first AND being able to place one more tile than your opponent was quite a big advantage so I was expecting more of a difference here. Evidently I was wrong...)



(I can't think what was so special about rounds 13 or 5 but a difference of more than 350 total points scored between the two rounds seems like quite a lot!)

The stats start getting a little more interesting from this point forward as I'm going down to the individual level. I decided to start by looking at the number of points scored by each of us. Because of my database structure, this is broken down into two columns as total points scored (by each of us) = points scored by the winner in games where you won + points scored by the loser in games where you lost. Furthermore, knowing that each of us played exactly 28 games, I divided these scores by 28 to get an average score per game too! This is all shown below:



(Jere tops this list by a single point!)

And here is a very similar breakdown of points that each of us had scored against us (i.e. points that were scored by our opponents in their games against each of us):



(apparently Merlin_89 was the most difficult to score points against in that he had least points scored in games against him throughout the tournament, and by quite a margin too!)

And of course, points for - points against = points difference (PD) so I've also created the following which summarises both of the previous tables to give a third table ordered by overall points difference:



(the average PD per game is quite interesting here)

But despite what the above may have us believe, pretty much everyone suffered from at least one or two big losses somewhere along the way which means that many of us will have enjoyed some particularly big wins too! I've summarised these in the table below which shows the maximum/ minimum win/ loss margins for each player:



(Hounk and Adrornalin logging some colossal wins, and a lot of evidence of some very close games in the second column too. No surprise to see that Merlin_89 and Jere have the lowest maximum loss margins either)

But as interesting as scores are, this league was all about league points. And league points had to be won by winning games. So let's have a look at that too, along with some percentages:



(Adrornalin sits exactly in the middle with a 50% win ratio. Anything more than two thirds (66%) wins and you were destined for a top-2 spot. Anything less than one third (33%) wins and you were destined for a bottom-2 spot. Despite having the lowest PD of the 3 players who tied on 17 points {by 1 point}, glh510 went ahead of MrNumbers and I as we both had 11 losses against us whereas he had 10 losses and a tie)

I hope you found this to be of interest. There will be one more follow-up post providing an opportunity to for you to post any feedback about how you felt the league went and what you think could/ should be changed to improve upon our success for next year.

Linkback: http://www.carcassonnecentral.com/community/index.php?topic=3585.0
Heroically snatching defeat from the jaws of victory since 2018

Offline Adrornalin

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Re: Basegame League - Some Stats
« Reply #1 on: October 17, 2017, 09:53:01 AM »
Interesting figures. My win ratio proves clearly that I am an average-average player. But with every right to be.

Thanks for organizing and summarizing this base game league, dan. When does the next competition start?

Offline Decar

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Re: Basegame League - Some Stats
« Reply #2 on: October 18, 2017, 04:42:02 AM »
Amazing analysis Dan, well worth a merit keeping track of all of these things!

Offline Jéré

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Re: Basegame League - Some Stats
« Reply #3 on: October 18, 2017, 05:04:36 AM »
Good work Dan! Very interesting! Thanks a lot.


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