Author Topic: Drawing your next card out of order  (Read 5807 times)

Offline chrisp2013

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Drawing your next card out of order
« on: February 25, 2013, 07:21:40 AM »
Hi folks,

Hoping someone can settle something for me here!

We play the basic game amongst a fairly consistent cohort of people, one of whom insists on drawing his next card from the pile immediately after he has completed his previous move rather than waiting until the start of his next turn. He claims this makes no difference to the outcome of the game because of the theory of independence in probability.

However, from what I can see, he is removing a card from the deck which someone else could conceivably pick up before he could legitimately have done so. He is therefore altering the potential progression of the game - something which becomes more and more important as the game progresses and players are able to make stronger judgements based on the probability of drawing the cards they need based on what is still left to be drawn?

Am I right or wrong here?

Cheers,

Chris

Linkback: http://www.carcassonnecentral.com/community/index.php?topic=130.0

Offline Fritz_Spinne

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Re: Drawing your next card out of order
« Reply #1 on: February 25, 2013, 07:37:24 AM »
From the sight of probability both should be equal and as long as he doesn't show his new card nobody can complain about it. We play all players get their tiles immediatly after completing the turn so all can think about the place to lay it down while the other players have their turn. It speeds Carcassonne a little up.

Offline Carcassebs

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Re: Drawing your next card out of order
« Reply #2 on: February 25, 2013, 07:41:07 AM »
Ah, I had the same issue with this idea, here's a good read about it over on the BGG forum: http://boardgamegeek.com/article/11186117#11186117

Offline Amorpheus

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Re: Drawing your next card out of order
« Reply #3 on: February 25, 2013, 07:56:24 AM »
Greetings Chris -

I agree with you that drawing immediately upon placement could and likely would alter the outcome of the game.  If he's the only player doing that, I would take an issue with it.  I'm sure the rules specify that you draw at the beginning of your turn.

However, if everyone plays that way from the start, then it would be no different (or minimally different) than drawing at the beginning of your turn.  Some people even play with 3 tiles in hand at all times, so that also would impact the outcome, but theroectically in a fair way. 

One caveat to this: I personally wouldn't allow the immediate re-draw if you are playing a game that involves expansions with potential multiple draws on a turn, such as the builder, bazaars, Messengers, multiple fan-made expansions (Fortune Teller and Origins for example), etc..  That would create similar issues to what you are experiencing now, since the multiple draws do not occur every turn and they are not evenly distributed to everyone.

Hope this helps some.  I'm interested in other opinions on this as well.

Offline Scott

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Re: Drawing your next card out of order
« Reply #4 on: February 25, 2013, 08:02:07 AM »
What the guys at BGG are describing is called the Monty Hall problem. You can read more about it on Wikipedia if you want to know why.

The probability doesn't change, but the guy drawing early could still get the tile you would have chosen. I think the decision about when to draw should be consistent. Either everybody draws early, or nobody draws early. Unless you allow players to look at the tile before their turn, there is no need to draw early.

Offline Carcassebs

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Re: Drawing your next card out of order
« Reply #5 on: February 25, 2013, 09:16:34 AM »
The probability doesn't change, but the guy drawing early could still get the tile you would have chosen.

Exactly my point too, I get that the probability won't change, but probability doesn't factor in luck. Some will argue that, but I do believe that some are luckier than others when there's chance involved.

When we play, we will pick after the previous person picked (so we can play quicker), unless there's an extension that could have them pick again. In that case, we'll pick when we know we can.

Offline Amorpheus

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Re: Drawing your next card out of order
« Reply #6 on: February 25, 2013, 09:23:59 AM »
Exactly my point too, I get that the probability won't change, but probability doesn't factor in luck. Some will argue that, but I do believe that some are luckier than others when there's chance involved.

I also think that, unfortunately, sometimes there are other forces at work besides luck.  For example, if you are playing with an unscrupulous companion, and that companion has a keen sense of touch, he/she may be able to find a specific tile given texture or thickness differences.  This wouldn't involve the mass populace of Carc players, but there are probably some people who can do just that, edging the "luck factor" to their side.

Offline chrisp2013

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Re: Drawing your next card out of order
« Reply #7 on: February 25, 2013, 09:42:58 AM »
Couldn't agree more that there should be consistency, but now I've raised it he's mainly doing it just to wind me up so the more I fight the more he does it. Good to know that the expansions solve this problem for me though, time to go shopping! (On a side note - which expansions are worth getting and which aren't?)

I understand that overall, the chances of picking up any particular card is the same over the course of the game, but if it's that simple - why aren't the cards just all pre-dealt at the start of the game? Surely, it's not just about the chance of picking up a certain card over the course of the game - it's about the chances of picking up a particular card to achieve what you're trying to achieve from what's left in your subsequent turns, based on your knowledge of what's already out on the board? Surely at that point, the probability "clock" is reset to solely take into account those remaining in the pile? Surely this is what makes the game skillful rather than simply lucky? Again, we've only played five times or so, so maybe I'm missing something!

(Thanks for the help by the way - not quite the resounding cries of how wrong my friend is that I'd hoped for, but good to be getting some clarity on things!)

Offline Joaquim00

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Re: Drawing your next card out of order
« Reply #8 on: February 25, 2013, 09:57:04 AM »
In a Carcassonne base set, there are 71 tiles up for grabs. 71 is a prime number, i.e. some players always get one less turn. Let me simplify this situation to a game where there are two players, and three tiles to pick from (with three also being a prime number). Player A picks one tile, and then immediately picks another tile after placing the first tile. Player B has one choice left. The probability of the second player picking each of the three tiles remain 1/3, no matter whether Player A picks the second tile before or after Player B picks a tile. However, the amount of control that Player B has over the situation is different depending on whether Player A picks a tile before, or after, Player B does. I like that Player A picks a tile after Player B picks a tile, as it gives Player B more choices, especially given that Player B is already disadvantaged.

Admittedly, this difference in control is minute when we are talking about 71 tiles.

Whatever you do, be consistent :).  (Thanks Scott for the Wikipedia page on Monty Hall problem!) 

Offline Joaquim00

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Re: Drawing your next card out of order
« Reply #9 on: February 25, 2013, 10:06:48 AM »
This 'control' is purely psychological.  But then we're all seeking psychological well being, isn't it? :)
« Last Edit: February 25, 2013, 10:08:57 AM by Joaquim00 »

Offline Carcking

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Re: Drawing your next card out of order
« Reply #10 on: February 25, 2013, 11:48:35 AM »
insists on drawing his next card from the pile immediately after he has completed his previous move rather than waiting until the start of his next turn.

Welcome to the CC forum chrisp2013! Good question here.

I presume he is not looking at the tile he is selecting until it is his turn correct? If he is looking at the tile after drawing it then he clearly has an advantage. Do you use a draw bag? Or place the tiles face down on the table?

If you are placing the draw piles on the table and he is not looking at his chosen tile (and you wanted to hand his own childish play back to him) then I would say technically his chosen tile is available to be chosen by any other player. Proximity on the board of the draw pile(s) does not indicate ownership.

In actuallity he is not playing the game by the rules. The first step in a player's turn is to draw and place a tile. The rules state "First a player must draw a land tile from one of the face-down stacks..."

I wonder what he does when the game is winding down? With the Builder in play, for example, the remaining tiles could get drawn at a rate of one or two tiles per player. Does he count the remaining tiles and make a calculated guess as to whether he thinks he is entitled to one of the remaining tiles?
I just drew the perfect tile for my MonKnighThieFarmer!

Offline Fritz_Spinne

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Re: Drawing your next card out of order
« Reply #11 on: February 25, 2013, 12:52:22 PM »
We draw our tiles at the end of the turn. If someone uses a builder, we give the tiles to the players contrary to turn order. So everyone gets "his" tile.

Offline Nebus

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Re: Drawing your next card out of order
« Reply #12 on: May 17, 2014, 03:58:14 PM »
I think you're totally right...

There may be many tiles/cards left in the bag but there may only be one actual tile/card that will help you, perhaps to complete a city, or to open up some field lands, etc. If someone messes with the order of things by pulling before their rightful turn then it is possible that they will choose the one and only tile/card left that could help you.
So it's not very fair :)

 :black-meeple:



Offline Paul

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Re: Drawing your next card out of order
« Reply #13 on: May 17, 2014, 05:19:47 PM »
Looking at it from the other end, the tile one player drew could have been devastating for the other player that was supposed to have it and saved him or her a lot of trouble. This is what counts for the either way being equally random.

As I mentioned in another post, we all pre-draw after our turn when we play. Albeit we don't care much if a builder or other effect is used after we just draw a new tile from the heap and let the others keep their pre-drawn ones.

It's only when the tiles run out, we hand down the tiles in order, if a builder effect for example takes place.

Reverting back to the original post, I would also disagree that if only one player pre-draws it just feels off. Either everyone or no one does it.

 :meeple:
World record holder for a single game of Carcassonne using 10 007 tiles!


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